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Residents of the Big Apple will learn the identity of their new city leader this election day, in a contest that will decide who governs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby end to an election that could be key to the direction that the party, struggling in its response to the former president's power moves, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with Americans' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of considered, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A New York rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting the candidate directly. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and warned to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, started his mayoral bid in last year, not many had known him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in the final phase, after footage emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd